The SASI project is associated with the EUNET project coordinated by Marcial Echenique & Partners Ltd., Cambridge, UK. SASI itself is coordinated by SRF and carried out with two partners:
für Stadt- und Regionalforschung (SRF)
o.Univ.Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dieter Bökemann
Dipl.-Ing. Hans Kramar
Dipl.-Ing. Roland Hackl
für Raumplanung (IRPUD)
Prof. Dr.-Ing. Michael Wegener
Dipl.-Ing. Klaus Spiekermann
Dipl.-Ing. Franz Fürst
Dipl.-Ing. Carsten Schürmann
of Town and Regional Planning (TRP)
Professor Ian Masser
Dr. Max Craglia
Dipl.-Ing. Adelheid Holl
The trans-European transport networks (TETN) are one of the most ambitious initiatives of the European Community since its foundation. The masterplans for rail, road, waterways, ports and airports together require public and private investment between 400 and 500 billion ECU until the year 2010. However, critics argue that the TETN programme primarily serves the objective of economic competitiveness of Europe and not the equally important objective of reducing economic disparities between the regions in Europe. In the face of this goal conflict, the consistent prediction and the rational and transparent evaluation of likely socio-economic impacts of major transport infrastructure investments and transport system improvements become of primary political importance both for the European Union and its member states.
The project "Socio-Economic and Spatial Impacts of Transport Infrastructure Investments and Transport System Improvements" (SASI) is conducted for DG VII (Transport) of the European Commission as part of the 4th Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development.
The project aims at the development of a comprehensive and transferable methodology for forecasting the socioeconomic and spatial impacts of large transport investments in Europe, in particular of different scenarios of the development of the trans-European transport networks (TETN) planned by the European Commission. With respect to the cohesion objective of the European Union the model is to answer the question which regions of the European Union are likely to benefit from the TETN and which regions are likely to be disadvantaged.
To achieve this objective the project focuses on
The SASI model is a recursive simulation model (see figure 1) of socio-economic development of 201 regions in Europe subject to exogenous assumptions about the economic and demographic development of the European Union as a whole and transport infrastructure investments and transport system improvements, in particular of the TETN. The model has six forecasting submodels: European Developments, Regional Accessibility, Regional GDP, Regional Employment, Regional Population and Regional Labour Force. A seventh submodel calculates Socio-Economic Indicators with respect to efficiency and equity. For each region the model forecasts the development of accessibility, GDP per capita and unemployment in one-year increments until the forecasting horizon 2016. In addition cohesion indicators expressing the impact of transport infrastructure investments and transport system improvements on the convergence (or divergence) of socio-economic development in the regions of the European Union are calculated.
Figure 1: SASI model structure
The proposed methodology and modelling system is innovative in that is is based on measurable indicators derived from advanced location-theory approaches to explain and predict the locational behaviour of investment capital and manufacturing and service activities and population. It is pragmatic and feasible in that it does not require massive and repeated collection of data on socio-economic distributions or trade flows and travel patterns. It is designed to facilitate political discussion and negotiation by being transparent, understandable and open for new indicators and issues that may become relevant in the future.
©2000 Hans Kramar, letzte Änderung am 211005.